Aluminum
A light, corrosion-resistant metal made from bauxite via alumina. Guinea mines about a third of the world's bauxite, while China refines more than half of all alumina and smelts about 60% of primary aluminum.
Supply risk
Reviewed 3 Oct 2026 · Methodology
High
Gulf smelters curtailed by the Iran war while Russian metal stays barred
Policy (high) and operational disruption (elevated) decide the level: Russia, the third-largest smelter, is shut out of the US and EU, and since March 2026 the war with Iran has curtailed Gulf smelters that supply about 9% of world aluminium. Alba declared force majeure on 4 March, and EGA's Al Taweelah smelter, hit on 28 March, had restarted only 18% of its cells by August.
Since 4 Mar 2026 · Sources: Reuters via Kitco, Leadership (Reuters report), AlCircle, EUR-Lex
Get alerts for this materialRisk drivers
- Supply concentrationElevated
- China smelted about 45 million t of the world's roughly 74 million t of primary aluminium in 2025 (about 61%) and refined about 93 million t of 150 million t of alumina (about 62%). Guinea mined about a third of world bauxite.Sources: U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Geological Survey
- Export controlsElevated
- Indonesia, the sixth-largest bauxite miner, has banned bauxite ore exports since 10 June 2023 to push domestic refining; USGS reports its output fell sharply afterwards. No export licensing or bans apply to primary aluminium from the main smelting countries.Sources: Indonesia Business Post, U.S. Geological Survey
- Policy & tariffsHigh
- The US has banned imports of Russian aluminium produced from 13 Apr 2024, and the LME and CME may not accept new Russian metal. The EU banned Russian primary aluminium in Feb 2025, with a transitional quota that ended on 26 Feb 2026. US Section 232 duties of 50% have applied to most aluminium imports since June 2025.Sources: U.S. Department of the Treasury, EUR-Lex, U.S. Geological Survey
- Operational disruptionElevated
- Iranian strikes on 28 Mar 2026 shut EGA's Al Taweelah smelter (1.6 million t in 2025); EGA targets full output in Q1 2027. Alba ran at about 80% of capacity in mid-Sept 2026 and ships via Jeddah and Sohar. Hormuz transits remained far below pre-war levels in Sept 2026.Sources: AlCircle, AlCircle, Lloyd's List Intelligence
- Demand shockModerate
- ING (July 2026) expects a 2026 market deficit caused mainly by lost Middle East output, narrowing as Gulf smelters recover, with Chinese smelters already near full capacity. No demand-driven allocation was identified.Source: ING via Hellenic Shipping News
Status history3 entries
Highcurrent
Gulf smelters curtailed by the Iran war while Russian metal stays barred
Policy (high) and operational disruption (elevated) decide the level: Russia, the third-largest smelter, is shut out of the US and EU, and since March 2026 the war with Iran has curtailed Gulf smelters that supply about 9% of world aluminium. Alba declared force majeure on 4 March, and EGA's Al Taweelah smelter, hit on 28 March, had restarted only 18% of its cells by August.
Sources: Reuters via Kitco, Leadership (Reuters report), AlCircle, EUR-Lex
Elevated
US and UK bar new Russian aluminium from imports and metal exchanges
The US banned imports of Russian aluminium produced from 13 April 2024 and, with the UK, stopped the LME and CME accepting new Russian metal. Sanctions restricting the third-largest smelter's access to major markets made policy (high) the deciding driver, on top of China's concentration of smelting (elevated).
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury
Moderate
Baseline
China smelted about 40 million t of the world's 69 million t of primary aluminium in 2022 (about 58%), so supply concentration (elevated) set the level. Russian metal still had access to the main exchanges and was not banned from the US or EU.
Source: U.S. Geological Survey
A supply-availability rating, not a price forecast or investment view. Export-control information is factual and is not legal advice.
Trade flows
2024 · HS 760110
Unwrought aluminium, not alloyed
Recorded world imports: 13.9 Mt · $35.4B
Top exporters
- Russia15%2.1 Mt · $5.3B
- Canada14%1.9 Mt · $5.31B
- India9%1.3 Mt · $3.31B
- Australia9%1.2 Mt · $3.06B
- United Arab Emirates6%905,964 t · $2.29B
- South Africa5%750,670 t · $1.94B
- Netherlands5%682,333 t · $1.81B
- Malaysia4%524,274 t · $1.33B
- Mozambique3%436,158 t · $1.1B
- Iceland3%397,685 t · $1.08B
Top importers
- United States16%2.2 Mt · $5.97B
- China15%2.1 Mt · $5.21B
- South Korea8%1.1 Mt · $2.86B
- Türkiye8%1.1 Mt · $2.7B
- Japan8%1.1 Mt · $2.63B
- Malaysia6%804,212 t · $1.32B
- Germany5%757,537 t · $1.99B
- Italy5%700,522 t · $1.76B
- Netherlands5%645,150 t · $1.67B
- Thailand3%357,196 t · $922M
Largest routes
- Canada→United States1.7 Mt · $4.75B
- Russia→China1.4 Mt · $3.55B
- Australia→South Korea366,522 t · $933M
- Australia→Japan296,135 t · $738M
- Netherlands→Germany275,144 t · $710M
Source: UN Comtrade, imports reported by 128 countries for 2024. Exporters are ranked by what importing countries recorded (mirror data), so countries that do not report their own exports are still counted. Values are in US dollars including freight and insurance. Weights are product weight. Recent years can be incomplete, and unrecorded trade is not included.
Overview
Aluminum is the most abundant metal in the Earth's crust, making up about 8.1% of it, but it never occurs uncombined. It is light, non-toxic, a good conductor of heat and electricity and highly resistant to , which is why it is used in everything from beverage cans and window frames to aircraft parts and power lines.1
The supply chain has three stages. Bauxite is into alumina (aluminum ), and alumina is into metal. As a rule of thumb, about 4 t of dried bauxite yields 2 t of alumina, which in turn yields 1 t of aluminum.2 Smelting uses the Hall–Héroult process, in which alumina is dissolved in molten cryolite and reduced by . It is very energy-intensive.1
The United States lists aluminum as a . The EU lists bauxite/alumina/aluminium as both a critical and a .34
Where it comes from
World bauxite are estimated at 55 billion to 75 billion t, about a third of them in Africa. Known are about 29 billion t, of which Guinea holds 7.4 billion t.2
Guinea is also the largest miner, with an estimated 150 million t in 2025. Australia and China follow. Indonesia's output fell sharply after it banned bauxite exports in 2023, but new domestic alumina refineries may support a recovery.2 Guinea was the EU's main bauxite supplier in the EU's 2023 assessment, with 63% of supply.5
- Guinea150,000,000 t · 34%
- Australia97,000,000 t · 22%
- China87,000,000 t · 20%
- Brazil33,000,000 t · 7%
- India25,000,000 t · 6%
- Indonesia10,000,000 t · 2%
- Other countries38,960,000 t · 9%
World total shown is the sum of USGS country estimates, excluding withheld US output; USGS rounds it to 440 million t. Source: Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Bauxite and Alumina
Refining is concentrated in China, which produced an estimated 93 million t of the world's roughly 150 million t of alumina in 2025.2
- China93,000,000 t · 62%
- Australia17,000,000 t · 11%
- Brazil11,000,000 t · 7%
- India8,200,000 t · 5%
- Russia2,900,000 t · 2%
- United Arab Emirates2,300,000 t · 2%
- Other countries15,900,000 t · 11%
World total shown is the sum of USGS country estimates; USGS rounds it to 150 million t. Source: Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Bauxite and Alumina
Smelting is similar. China produced about 45 million t of primary aluminum in 2025, roughly 60% of the world total, and its output matched its reported year-end capacity of 45 million t. Outside China, the largest producers were India, Russia and Canada.6
- China45,000,000 t · 61%
- India4,200,000 t · 6%
- Russia3,900,000 t · 5%
- Canada3,300,000 t · 4%
- United Arab Emirates2,700,000 t · 4%
- Bahrain1,600,000 t · 2%
- Australia1,500,000 t · 2%
- Other countries12,010,000 t · 16%
World total shown is the sum of USGS country estimates; USGS rounds it to 74 million t. Source: Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Aluminum
What it is used for
In the United States, transportation is the largest market, followed by packaging and building. Electrical uses, consumer durables and machinery account for most of the rest.6
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Most bauxite is refined to alumina, and most alumina goes to smelters. In the United States in 2025, about 63% of the bauxite consumed went to alumina or aluminum . The remainder went into abrasives, cement, chemicals, proppants and , and was used as a adjuster in steel mills. About 70% of US alumina went to smelters; the rest went to abrasives, ceramics, chemicals and refractories.2
Grades and forms
Aluminum is traded at every stage of the chain: as ore, as , as primary and alloyed metal, and as . US schedules separate unalloyed metal by purity, and from scrap.62
Metallurgical bauxite
Crude, dried aluminum ore refined to alumina by the Bayer process; most bauxite is used this way.
Calcined (refractory) bauxite
Heat-treated bauxite used in refractories, abrasives and other non-metallurgical products.
Smelter-grade alumina
Aluminum oxide, Al₂O₃
The intermediate fed to electrolytic smelters; about 2 t is needed per tonne of aluminum.
Aluminum hydroxide
Product of the Bayer process, sold for chemical and other non-metallurgical uses.
Unwrought primary aluminum
Unalloyed metal cast at primary smelters, including coils and standard-purity grades.
High-purity aluminum
> 99.9% Al
Refined grade for electronics and other specialized uses, classified separately in US tariff lines.
Alloy billet
Unwrought aluminum alloy cast as billet, classified separately from unalloyed metal in US tariff schedules.
Aluminum scrap
New (process) and old (post-consumer) scrap, including used beverage containers, remelted by secondary producers.
Trade and policy
The United States imported 60% of the aluminum it used in 2025. Canada supplied 56% of imports in 2021–24, followed by the United Arab Emirates (8%) and Bahrain (4%). Domestic smelter capacity was 1.31 million t a year, but two of the six smelters had been shut down since 2022 and 2024.6 For bauxite and alumina, US import reliance was above 75% and 71% respectively.2
US tariffs under of the Trade Expansion Act have changed several times since early 2025:
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| Mar 2025 | A 25% tariff applies to aluminum and derivative products, and all country exemptions end.6 |
| Jun 2025 | The rate doubles to 50% for most countries; the United Kingdom stays at 25%.6 |
| Aug 2025 | More than 400 aluminum-related tariff codes are added, taxed on their aluminum content.6 |
| 6 Apr 2026 | Proclamation 11021 applies the duty to the full customs value of products, regardless of metal content: 50% for aluminum articles, 25% for many derivatives. Products containing Russian-smelted or Russian-cast aluminum remain at 200%.7 |
| 8 Jun 2026 | A reduced 15% rate is extended to agricultural equipment and some residential HVAC systems until the end of 2027. The threshold for "entirely" US-origin metal content drops from 95% to 85% by weight.8 |
| 20 Jul 2026 | A new proclamation lets approved investors in new US primary smelting capacity import set volumes at half the normal Section 232 rate. It does not change the rates themselves.9 |
The EU has banned imports of Russian primary aluminum (CN code 7601) under its 16th package. A of 275,000 t was allowed until 26 February 2026. Until 31 December 2026, up to 50,000 t may still be imported under contracts signed before 25 February 2025.10
In Guinea, the government revoked the bauxite mining licenses of a subsidiary of a UAE-based aluminum producer in August 2025, after a dispute over building an alumina refinery. It reassigned the concessions to a state-backed company.2
This section is factual background, not legal or trade-compliance advice.
Recycling and substitution
saves nearly 95% of the energy needed to make primary metal.1 US producers recovered about 3.6 million t of aluminum from purchased scrap in 2025, 56% of it from new manufacturing scrap. Metal recovered from old scrap equaled about 28% of apparent consumption.6
Aluminum can be replaced in most uses, usually with some trade-off. Composites can take its place in aircraft. Glass, paper, plastics and steel can replace it in packaging, and copper in electrical and heat-exchange uses.6 No commercial-scale alternative to bauxite exists for making alumina in the United States. Clays and other materials are technically feasible but not economically competitive.2
Sources
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Aluminium: element information, properties and uses. Royal Society of Chemistry, accessed 2026-10-03. ↩ ↩2 ↩3
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Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Bauxite and Alumina. U.S. Geological Survey, accessed 2026-10-03. ↩ ↩2 ↩3 ↩4 ↩5 ↩6 ↩7 ↩8 ↩9
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Final 2025 List of Critical Minerals. Federal Register, accessed 2026-10-03. ↩
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Regulation (EU) 2024/1252 (Critical Raw Materials Act). EUR-Lex, accessed 2026-10-03. ↩
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Study on the Critical Raw Materials for the EU 2023, Final Report. European Commission, accessed 2026-10-03. ↩
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Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Aluminum. U.S. Geological Survey, accessed 2026-10-03. ↩ ↩2 ↩3 ↩4 ↩5 ↩6 ↩7 ↩8 ↩9
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Proclamation 11021: Strengthening Actions Taken To Adjust Imports of Aluminum, Steel, and Copper Into the United States. Federal Register, accessed 2026-10-03. ↩
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Further Adjusting the Tariff Regimes for Imports of Aluminum, Steel, and Copper into the United States. The White House, accessed 2026-10-03. ↩
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New Section 232 Proclamation Creates Onshoring Incentives for U.S. Primary Aluminum Production. International Trade Insights, accessed 2026-10-03. ↩
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Council Regulation (EU) 2025/395 amending Regulation (EU) No 833/2014. EUR-Lex, accessed 2026-10-03. ↩