Risk tracker

Supply risk for every critical mineral

A five-level rating of how hard each material is to source right now, the five drivers behind it, and a dated history of every change. Reviewed weekly.

77 materials rated

Last review 11 Oct 2026

Low: 3
Moderate: 13
Elevated: 24
High: 35
Critical: 2

Supply-risk status by material. Column headers sort the table.
		CEPOD
YYttriumHeavy rare earths	CriticalChina licenses yttrium exports; shipments to the US and Japan severely curtailed	Supply concentration: CriticalExport controls: CriticalPolicy & tariffs: ModerateOperational disruption: ModerateDemand shock: Elevated	Apr 2025
TbTerbiumHeavy rare earths	CriticalChina's terbium licensing cuts exports to a small fraction of pre-control levels	Supply concentration: CriticalExport controls: CriticalPolicy & tariffs: ModerateOperational disruption: ModerateDemand shock: Moderate	Apr 2025
HfHafniumMinor & technology metals	HighBy-product supply from four countries cannot meet demand	Supply concentration: CriticalExport controls: ElevatedPolicy & tariffs: ElevatedOperational disruption: ModerateDemand shock: High	Jan 2023
SmSamariumLight rare earths	HighChina licenses samarium exports case by case; Lynas starts output outside China	Supply concentration: CriticalExport controls: HighPolicy & tariffs: ElevatedOperational disruption: LowDemand shock: Elevated	Jan 2023
AlAluminumLight metals	HighGulf smelters curtailed by the Iran war while Russian metal stays barred	Supply concentration: ElevatedExport controls: ElevatedPolicy & tariffs: HighOperational disruption: ElevatedDemand shock: Moderate	Mar 2026
DyDysprosiumHeavy rare earths	HighChina dominates dysprosium; export licensing in force since April 2025	Supply concentration: CriticalExport controls: HighPolicy & tariffs: ModerateOperational disruption: ModerateDemand shock: Moderate	Jan 2023
NdNeodymiumLight rare earths	HighChina dominates NdPr separation and magnet making; magnet controls compound it	Supply concentration: CriticalExport controls: ElevatedPolicy & tariffs: ElevatedOperational disruption: LowDemand shock: Elevated	Jan 2023
PrPraseodymiumLight rare earths	HighChina dominates NdPr separation and magnet making; magnet controls compound it	Supply concentration: CriticalExport controls: ElevatedPolicy & tariffs: ElevatedOperational disruption: LowDemand shock: Elevated	Jan 2023
RuRutheniumPlatinum group metals	HighOver 85% from South Africa, with a deep market deficit	Supply concentration: CriticalExport controls: ElevatedPolicy & tariffs: ElevatedOperational disruption: LowDemand shock: Elevated	Jan 2023
WTungstenSteel alloying elements	HighChina dominates supply; its export licensing has cut APT exports to near zero	Supply concentration: HighExport controls: HighPolicy & tariffs: ElevatedOperational disruption: LowDemand shock: Elevated	Jan 2023
CoCobaltBattery materials	HighDRC replaces its cobalt export ban with quotas	Supply concentration: HighExport controls: HighPolicy & tariffs: ModerateOperational disruption: ModerateDemand shock: Moderate	Oct 2025
ErErbiumHeavy rare earths	HighChina supplies nearly all erbium; its 2025 export controls are suspended	Supply concentration: CriticalExport controls: ElevatedPolicy & tariffs: ModerateOperational disruption: ModerateDemand shock: Moderate	Jan 2023
FeWFerro tungstenFerro alloys	HighFerrotungsten feed depends on China, where tungsten licensing has tightened supply	Supply concentration: HighExport controls: ElevatedPolicy & tariffs: ElevatedOperational disruption: ModerateDemand shock: Moderate	Jan 2023
GdGadoliniumHeavy rare earths	HighChina processes nearly all gadolinium; export licensing in force since April 2025	Supply concentration: CriticalExport controls: HighPolicy & tariffs: ModerateOperational disruption: ModerateDemand shock: Low	Jan 2023
GaGalliumMinor & technology metals	HighChina suspends its US export ban until 27 Nov 2026; licensing stays	Supply concentration: CriticalExport controls: HighPolicy & tariffs: ModerateOperational disruption: LowDemand shock: Moderate	Nov 2025
GeGermaniumMinor & technology metals	HighChina suspends its US export ban until 27 Nov 2026; licensing stays	Supply concentration: CriticalExport controls: HighPolicy & tariffs: ModerateOperational disruption: LowDemand shock: Moderate	Nov 2025
CGraphiteBattery materials	HighChina dominates graphite and licenses exports; tougher curbs suspended until Nov 2026	Supply concentration: CriticalExport controls: ElevatedPolicy & tariffs: ElevatedOperational disruption: LowDemand shock: Moderate	Jan 2023
HeHeliumIndustrial minerals & gases	HighQatar's Ras Laffan shutdown removes about a third of world helium supply	Supply concentration: ModerateExport controls: ElevatedPolicy & tariffs: ElevatedOperational disruption: HighDemand shock: Moderate	Mar 2026
IrIridiumPlatinum group metals	HighTiny by-product market, over 80% from South Africa	Supply concentration: CriticalExport controls: ModeratePolicy & tariffs: ElevatedOperational disruption: LowDemand shock: Elevated	Jan 2023
LuLutetiumHeavy rare earths	HighChina supplies all lutetium and has licensed exports since April 2025	Supply concentration: CriticalExport controls: ElevatedPolicy & tariffs: ModerateOperational disruption: ModerateDemand shock: Moderate	Jan 2023
MgMagnesiumLight metals	HighChina smelts close to nine-tenths of world magnesium	Supply concentration: CriticalExport controls: ElevatedPolicy & tariffs: ElevatedOperational disruption: LowDemand shock: Moderate	Jan 2023
ScScandiumMinor & technology metals	HighChina licenses scandium exports; US chipmakers report licence delays	Supply concentration: HighExport controls: HighPolicy & tariffs: ModerateOperational disruption: LowDemand shock: Elevated	Apr 2025
SnTinBase metals	HighMyanmar's Wa State suspends tin mining; restart remains slow	Supply concentration: LowExport controls: ElevatedPolicy & tariffs: HighOperational disruption: HighDemand shock: Moderate	Aug 2023
SbAntimonyMinor & technology metals	HighChina suspends its US export ban until 27 Nov 2026; licensing stays	Supply concentration: ElevatedExport controls: HighPolicy & tariffs: ModerateOperational disruption: LowDemand shock: Elevated	Nov 2025
BiBismuthMinor & technology metals	HighChina places bismuth metal under export licensing	Supply concentration: CriticalExport controls: HighPolicy & tariffs: ModerateOperational disruption: LowDemand shock: Low	Feb 2025
HoHolmiumHeavy rare earths	HighChina supplies all separated holmium; its October 2025 controls are suspended	Supply concentration: CriticalExport controls: ElevatedPolicy & tariffs: ModerateOperational disruption: ModerateDemand shock: Low	Jan 2023
RhRhodiumPlatinum group metals	HighBy-product supply, four-fifths from South Africa	Supply concentration: CriticalExport controls: ModeratePolicy & tariffs: ElevatedOperational disruption: LowDemand shock: Moderate	Jan 2023
TeTelluriumMinor & technology metals	HighChina places tellurium under export licensing	Supply concentration: HighExport controls: HighPolicy & tariffs: ModerateOperational disruption: LowDemand shock: Moderate	Feb 2025
TmThuliumHeavy rare earths	HighChina supplies nearly all thulium; its 2025 export controls are suspended	Supply concentration: CriticalExport controls: ElevatedPolicy & tariffs: ModerateOperational disruption: ModerateDemand shock: Low	Jan 2023
YbYtterbiumHeavy rare earths	HighChina supplies nearly all ytterbium; its 2025 export controls are suspended	Supply concentration: CriticalExport controls: ElevatedPolicy & tariffs: ModerateOperational disruption: ModerateDemand shock: Low	Jan 2023
EuEuropiumHeavy rare earths	HighChina supplies all separated europium; its October 2025 controls are suspended	Supply concentration: CriticalExport controls: ElevatedPolicy & tariffs: ModerateOperational disruption: LowDemand shock: Low	Jan 2023
SiSiliconMinor & technology metals	HighChina dominates silicon metal and polysilicon; US trade measures tighten in 2026	Supply concentration: CriticalExport controls: LowPolicy & tariffs: HighOperational disruption: LowDemand shock: Low	Jan 2023
CeCeriumLight rare earths	HighChina dominates rare-earth separation; cerium itself is not export-licensed	Supply concentration: CriticalExport controls: ModeratePolicy & tariffs: ModerateOperational disruption: LowDemand shock: Low	Jan 2023
LaLanthanumLight rare earths	HighChina dominates rare-earth separation; lanthanum itself is not export-licensed	Supply concentration: CriticalExport controls: ModeratePolicy & tariffs: ModerateOperational disruption: LowDemand shock: Low	Jan 2023
FeNbFerro niobiumFerro alloys	HighBrazil makes about 90% of world ferroniobium; no export restrictions in force	Supply concentration: CriticalExport controls: LowPolicy & tariffs: ModerateOperational disruption: LowDemand shock: Low	Jan 2023
NbNiobiumSteel alloying elements	HighBrazil supplies over 90% of world niobium; no export restrictions in force	Supply concentration: CriticalExport controls: LowPolicy & tariffs: ModerateOperational disruption: LowDemand shock: Low	Jan 2023
OsOsmiumPlatinum group metals	HighA few hundred kilograms a year, recovered by a handful of refiners	Supply concentration: CriticalExport controls: LowPolicy & tariffs: LowOperational disruption: LowDemand shock: Low	Jan 2023
LiLithiumBattery materials	ElevatedChina refines most lithium chemicals; Zimbabwe curbs and a China mine halt tighten supply	Supply concentration: HighExport controls: ElevatedPolicy & tariffs: ModerateOperational disruption: ElevatedDemand shock: Elevated	Jan 2023
InIndiumMinor & technology metals	ElevatedChina licenses exports of indium phosphide and organo-indium compounds	Supply concentration: HighExport controls: HighPolicy & tariffs: ModerateOperational disruption: LowDemand shock: Elevated	Feb 2025
PtPlatinumPlatinum group metals	ElevatedSouth Africa mines about 70% of supply; Russian metal is barred from the EU	Supply concentration: HighExport controls: ModeratePolicy & tariffs: ElevatedOperational disruption: ModerateDemand shock: Elevated	Jan 2023
UUraniumEnergy materials	ElevatedUS ban on Russian enriched uranium takes effect, with waivers to 2028	Supply concentration: ModerateExport controls: HighPolicy & tariffs: HighOperational disruption: ModerateDemand shock: Moderate	Aug 2024
CuCopperBase metals	ElevatedGrasberg mud rush takes the world's second-largest copper mine offline	Supply concentration: ModerateExport controls: ElevatedPolicy & tariffs: ElevatedOperational disruption: ElevatedDemand shock: Moderate	Sept 2025
CaF₂FluorsparIndustrial minerals & gases	ElevatedChina mines about 60% of fluorspar and keeps exports under licence	Supply concentration: ElevatedExport controls: ElevatedPolicy & tariffs: ElevatedOperational disruption: ModerateDemand shock: Moderate	Jan 2023
NiNickelBattery materials	ElevatedIndonesia dominates mine supply and tightens ore quotas and export rules	Supply concentration: HighExport controls: ElevatedPolicy & tariffs: HighOperational disruption: LowDemand shock: Low	Jan 2023
PO₄PhosphateAgricultural minerals	ElevatedChina suspends phosphate fertilizer exports; Hormuz closure cuts Gulf supply	Supply concentration: ModerateExport controls: HighPolicy & tariffs: ElevatedOperational disruption: ElevatedDemand shock: Low	Dec 2025
VVanadiumSteel alloying elements	ElevatedChina and Russia dominate supply; sanctions restrict Russian vanadium in the West	Supply concentration: HighExport controls: LowPolicy & tariffs: HighOperational disruption: ModerateDemand shock: Moderate	Jan 2023
CsCesiumMinor & technology metals	ElevatedOne Chinese group controls both active cesium sources	Supply concentration: HighExport controls: ElevatedPolicy & tariffs: ModerateOperational disruption: ModerateDemand shock: Low	Jan 2023
FeSiFerro siliconFerro alloys	ElevatedChina makes 70% of ferrosilicon; EU and US trade measures redirect supply	Supply concentration: HighExport controls: ModeratePolicy & tariffs: HighOperational disruption: LowDemand shock: Low	Jan 2023
FeVFerro vanadiumFerro alloys	ElevatedChina-led feed, US anti-dumping duties and EU sanctions on Evraz narrow supply lanes	Supply concentration: HighExport controls: LowPolicy & tariffs: HighOperational disruption: ModerateDemand shock: Low	Jan 2023
MCMetallurgical coalEnergy materials	ElevatedEU embargo on Russian coal, with weather and accidents hitting Queensland supply	Supply concentration: ElevatedExport controls: LowPolicy & tariffs: HighOperational disruption: ElevatedDemand shock: Low	Jan 2023
SiMnSilico manganeseFerro alloys	ElevatedChina makes nearly four-fifths of silicomanganese; US and EU trade measures apply	Supply concentration: HighExport controls: ModeratePolicy & tariffs: ElevatedOperational disruption: ModerateDemand shock: Low	Jan 2023
SrStrontiumMinor & technology metals	ElevatedIran, under US sanctions, is the largest celestite producer	Supply concentration: ElevatedExport controls: LowPolicy & tariffs: ElevatedOperational disruption: ElevatedDemand shock: Moderate	Jan 2023
MnManganeseSteel alloying elements	ElevatedOre supply is spread out, but China makes most manganese alloys and metal	Supply concentration: HighExport controls: ModeratePolicy & tariffs: ElevatedOperational disruption: LowDemand shock: Low	Jan 2023
RbRubidiumMinor & technology metals	ElevatedNo rubidium ore mined anywhere; refiners draw on stockpiles	Supply concentration: HighExport controls: LowPolicy & tariffs: ModerateOperational disruption: ElevatedDemand shock: Low	Jan 2023
TaTantalumMinor & technology metals	ElevatedM23 rebels hold Rubaya, source of about 15% of world tantalum	Supply concentration: ElevatedExport controls: LowPolicy & tariffs: ModerateOperational disruption: ElevatedDemand shock: Moderate	Apr 2024
FeMnFerro manganeseFerro alloys	ElevatedEU safeguard quotas on ferromanganese imports take effect	Supply concentration: ModerateExport controls: ModeratePolicy & tariffs: ElevatedOperational disruption: ModerateDemand shock: Low	Nov 2025
PPhosphorusAgricultural minerals	ElevatedChina dominates elemental phosphorus and keeps an export duty on it	Supply concentration: HighExport controls: ModeratePolicy & tariffs: ModerateOperational disruption: LowDemand shock: Low	Jan 2023
TiTitaniumLight metals	ElevatedChina makes most titanium sponge; Western buyers rely on Japan and Kazakhstan	Supply concentration: HighExport controls: LowPolicy & tariffs: ModerateOperational disruption: LowDemand shock: Moderate	Jan 2023
FeTiFerro titaniumFerro alloys	ElevatedChina controls most titanium ferroalloy supply; scrap-based output elsewhere	Supply concentration: HighExport controls: LowPolicy & tariffs: ModerateOperational disruption: LowDemand shock: Low	Jan 2023
FeBFerro boronFerro alloys	ElevatedChina controls most ferroboron output; no export controls in force	Supply concentration: HighExport controls: LowPolicy & tariffs: LowOperational disruption: LowDemand shock: Low	Jan 2023
FePFerro phosphorusFerro alloys	ElevatedBy-product of elemental phosphorus furnaces, which are concentrated in China	Supply concentration: HighExport controls: LowPolicy & tariffs: LowOperational disruption: LowDemand shock: Low	Jan 2023
CrChromiumSteel alloying elements	ModerateConcentrated ore and alloy supply, with South African export controls pending	Supply concentration: ElevatedExport controls: ModeratePolicy & tariffs: ModerateOperational disruption: ElevatedDemand shock: Low	Jan 2023
FeCrFerro chromeFerro alloys	ModerateChina leads ferrochrome output as South African smelters stay idle	Supply concentration: ElevatedExport controls: ModeratePolicy & tariffs: ModerateOperational disruption: ElevatedDemand shock: Low	Jan 2023
MoMolybdenumSteel alloying elements	ModerateDiverse by-product supply; China licenses only some molybdenum powders	Supply concentration: ModerateExport controls: ElevatedPolicy & tariffs: ElevatedOperational disruption: LowDemand shock: Moderate	Jan 2023
AgSilverPrecious metals	ModerateDiverse mine supply, with China export licensing and a tight London market	Supply concentration: LowExport controls: ElevatedPolicy & tariffs: ElevatedOperational disruption: LowDemand shock: Elevated	Jan 2023
PdPalladiumPlatinum group metals	ModerateRussia and South Africa dominate supply; Russian metal faces UK tariffs	Supply concentration: ModerateExport controls: ModeratePolicy & tariffs: ElevatedOperational disruption: ModerateDemand shock: Low	Jan 2023
BeBerylliumMinor & technology metals	ModerateUS-led supply with no export restrictions in force	Supply concentration: ElevatedExport controls: LowPolicy & tariffs: ModerateOperational disruption: LowDemand shock: Moderate	Jan 2023
FspFeldsparIndustrial minerals & gases	ModerateDiverse supply, with Türkiye export registration and sanctions on Iran	Supply concentration: LowExport controls: ModeratePolicy & tariffs: ElevatedOperational disruption: ModerateDemand shock: Low	Jan 2023
FeMoFerro molybdenumFerro alloys	ModerateDiverse feed; no export controls or EU safeguard on ferromolybdenum	Supply concentration: ModerateExport controls: LowPolicy & tariffs: ElevatedOperational disruption: LowDemand shock: Moderate	Jan 2023
ReRheniumMinor & technology metals	ModerateChile-led by-product supply meets rising aerospace demand	Supply concentration: ModerateExport controls: LowPolicy & tariffs: ModerateOperational disruption: LowDemand shock: Elevated	Jan 2023
BaSO₄BariteIndustrial minerals & gases	ModerateDiverse mine supply, with US sanctions on Iran, a top-five producer	Supply concentration: LowExport controls: LowPolicy & tariffs: ElevatedOperational disruption: ModerateDemand shock: Low	Jan 2023
AsArsenicMinor & technology metals	ModerateArsenic trioxide comes mainly from Peru, China and Morocco	Supply concentration: ModerateExport controls: LowPolicy & tariffs: ModerateOperational disruption: LowDemand shock: Low	Jan 2023
KClPotashAgricultural minerals	ModerateDiverse supply; EU ban on Belarusian potash in force since 2021	Supply concentration: LowExport controls: LowPolicy & tariffs: ElevatedOperational disruption: LowDemand shock: Low	Jan 2023
BBoronMinor & technology metals	ModerateTürkiye leads borate supply; no export restrictions in force	Supply concentration: ModerateExport controls: LowPolicy & tariffs: LowOperational disruption: LowDemand shock: Low	Jan 2023
PbLeadBase metals	LowDiverse, largely recycled supply in a market in surplus	Supply concentration: ModerateExport controls: LowPolicy & tariffs: ModerateOperational disruption: ModerateDemand shock: Low	Jan 2023
ZnZincBase metals	LowDiverse mine supply and a near-balanced refined market	Supply concentration: LowExport controls: LowPolicy & tariffs: ModerateOperational disruption: ModerateDemand shock: Low	Jan 2023
ZrZirconiumMinor & technology metals	LowDiverse zircon supply with no export restrictions in force	Supply concentration: LowExport controls: LowPolicy & tariffs: ModerateOperational disruption: ModerateDemand shock: Low	Jan 2023

Showing 77 of 77Drivers: C = Supply concentration · E = Export controls · P = Policy & tariffs · O = Operational disruption · D = Demand shock

Recent status changes

4 Mar 2026
AluminumElevated→High
Gulf smelters curtailed by the Iran war while Russian metal stays barred
2 Mar 2026
HeliumModerate→High
Qatar's Ras Laffan shutdown removes about a third of world helium supply
11 Dec 2025
PhosphateModerate→Elevated
China suspends phosphate fertilizer exports; Hormuz closure cuts Gulf supply
18 Nov 2025
Ferro manganeseModerate→Elevated
EU safeguard quotas on ferromanganese imports take effect
9 Nov 2025
AntimonyCritical→High
China suspends its US export ban until 27 Nov 2026; licensing stays
9 Nov 2025
GalliumCritical→High
China suspends its US export ban until 27 Nov 2026; licensing stays
9 Nov 2025
GermaniumCritical→High
China suspends its US export ban until 27 Nov 2026; licensing stays
16 Oct 2025
CobaltCritical→High
DRC replaces its cobalt export ban with quotas
8 Sept 2025
CopperModerate→Elevated
Grasberg mud rush takes the world's second-largest copper mine offline
4 Apr 2025
ScandiumElevated→High
China licenses scandium exports; US chipmakers report licence delays

Methodology

The rating describes the near-term (about 12-month) risk that a buyer outside the producing country cannot obtain the material in its usual form, volume and lead time. Each of five drivers is rated on its own; the overall level is set by the strongest drivers and can be at most one step below the highest one. Every status and driver cites public sources, and every change is dated.

Levels

Critical: Supply to major markets is largely cut off or severely rationed.
High: Supply to major markets is impaired now.
Elevated: A real constraint exists: controls, concentration or an outage.
Moderate: Some concentration or a pending measure. Worth watching.
Low: Diverse supply, no active restrictions. Routine procurement.

Drivers

Supply concentration: Largest single country's share of mining or refining, whichever is higher.
Export controls: Licensing, bans, quotas or export taxes in force in producing countries.
Policy & tariffs: Tariffs, trade-defence duties, sanctions and resource nationalism.
Operational disruption: Mine, smelter, logistics or conflict disruptions in the last 12 months.
Demand shock: Demand growing faster than supply can follow, including stockpiling.

Ratings are drafted weekly with AI assistance from public sources and approved by a human editor before publication. They describe supply availability only. They are not price forecasts or investment views, and export-control information is factual and is not legal advice.