Policy dates that move critical-mineral supply

Kazakhstan's six-month ban on copper, aluminium and lead scrap exports lapses unless renewed

1 Nov 2026. Order No. 169 of the Minister of Industry and Construction (14 Apr 2026) bans exports of copper, aluminium and lead waste and scrap, lead-battery scrap and ferrous scrap by all modes of transport for six months from 1 May 2026. The ban lapses at the end of October 2026 unless a new order is issued.

End date computed from the six-month term starting 1 May 2026 (Alta-Soft lists the order as not applicable from 1 Nov 2026). Similar six-month orders have followed each other since 2021 (latest before this: No. 449 of 23 Oct 2025). No follow-up order was on Adilet on 11 Oct 2026.

• CuCopper
• AlAluminum
• PbLead

Deadline for first review of EU ferro-alloy safeguard

By 18 Nov 2026 (expected). Article 7 of Regulation (EU) 2025/2351 requires the Commission to review the ferro-alloy safeguard no later than one year after its entry into force on 18 November 2025. The second year of quarterly tariff-rate quotas starts on 18 November 2026.

No notice of initiation of the review had been located as of 2026-10-06.

• FeSiFerro silicon
• FeMnFerro manganese
• SiMnSilico manganese

Suspension of China's ban on Ga, Ge, Sb and superhard-material exports to US due to end

27 Nov 2026. Under MOFCOM Announcement No. 72 of 2025, the suspension of Article 2 of Announcement No. 46 of 2024 runs until 27 Nov 2026. Article 2 says licences for gallium, germanium, antimony and superhard-material exports to the US will in principle not be granted, and requires stricter end-user review for graphite exports to the US.

No official notice extending this date had been found as of 11 Oct 2026. MOFCOM's 28 Sep 2026 statement on extending the Kuala Lumpur arrangement to 10 Jan 2027 does not mention Announcement No. 72.

• GaGallium
• GeGermanium
• SbAntimony
• CGraphite

Section 232 polysilicon minimum import price program and 15% tariff take effect

4 Dec 2026. Proclamation 11052 (6 Aug 2026) puts polysilicon and its derivatives under a minimum import price program and adds a 15% Section 232 duty on polysilicon ingots and derivatives, both effective 4 Dec 2026. Lower combined rates apply to some partners (EU, Japan, Korea, UK and others).

• SiSilicon

Final wind-down for Russian primary aluminium imports ends

31 Dec 2026. Article 3i(3ch) of Regulation (EU) No 833/2014 permits execution, from 26 February 2026 until 31 December 2026, of contracts concluded before 25 February 2025 for Russian unwrought aluminium, capped at 50,000 t in total.

• AlAluminum

DFARS restriction expands to magnets, tantalum, tungsten mined or refined in covered countries

1 Jan 2027. From 1 Jan 2027, DFARS 225.7018-2 bars DoD from acquiring SmCo and NdFeB magnets, tantalum metals/alloys, tungsten metal powder and tungsten heavy alloy mined, refined, separated, melted or produced in North Korea, China, Russia or Iran; until then the bar covers melting/production only.

Replaces the 1 Jan 2026 start date: section 854 of the NDAA for FY2024 (Pub. L. 118-31) extended the effective date by one year; the final rule (effective 30 May 2024) reflects 1 Jan 2027.

• NdNeodymium
• SmSamarium
• CoCobalt
• TaTantalum
• WTungsten
• PrPraseodymium
• DyDysprosium
• TbTerbium

DR Congo 2027 cobalt export quota period begins

1 Jan 2027. Under ARECOMS Decision 004/2025, the 2027 cobalt export quota is set at the 2026 level of 96,600 t (base plus strategic quota), subject to quarterly adjustment by ARECOMS.

Scheduled period start; allocations may change through quarterly adjustments.

• CoCobalt

Indonesia ferro-alloy exports to run through state exporter DSI

1 Jan 2027. Full implementation of the single-window regime is due by 1 January 2027, after which ferro-alloy exports, including ferronickel, are to be carried out through state-owned PT Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia, subject to approved exemptions.

The ministry press release sets full implementation 'no later than 1 January 2027' after a transition review; the Permendag 17/2026 text was not read directly.

• NiNickel
• FeMnFerro manganese
• SiMnSilico manganese
• FeSiFerro silicon

Indonesia's regulation for the strategic minerals and commodities exchange takes effect

1 Jan 2027. OJK Regulation 16/2026 on operating the Mineral and Strategic Commodity Exchange (BMKS, branded ICOMEX), established on 17 September 2026, takes effect on 1 January 2027.

The OJK site was unreachable on 6 Oct 2026; dates taken from the search-index extract of the regulation page. POJK 15/2026 covers transfer of oversight from Bappebti to OJK.

• SnTin
• NiNickel

UK carbon border adjustment mechanism takes effect

1 Jan 2027. Under the Finance Act 2026, the UK CBAM applies from 1 January 2027 to imports from the aluminium, cement, fertiliser, hydrogen and iron and steel sectors. Ferro-silicon, ferro-silico-manganese and several other ferro-alloys are excluded.

Registration threshold is GBP 50,000 of CBAM goods over 12 months; first-year registration is allowed until 31 January 2028.

• AlAluminum
• FeMnFerro manganese
• FeCrFerro chrome
• PO₄Phosphate
• KClPotash

Zimbabwe lithium concentrate export ban scheduled to take effect

1 Jan 2027. Zimbabwe plans to stop all exports of lithium concentrate from 1 January 2027, after which lithium must be processed further, for example into lithium sulphate, before export.

No statutory instrument implementing the 2027 ban was found as of 6 Oct 2026. Cabinet said 'January 2027'; the Apr 2026 ministry letter refers to 1 Jan 2027.

• LiLithium

Tin scheduled as first commodity traded on Indonesia's new ICOMEX exchange

4 Jan 2027. OJK officials said trading on the new Indonesia Commodity Exchange (ICOMEX) is to begin on 4 January 2027, with tin as the first strategic commodity and ferronickel also in the opening transactions.

Stated by the exchange's chief supervisor at a parliamentary hearing (Sep 2026); operating licence targeted for 1 Jan 2027. No OJK primary text with the 4 Jan date was retrievable. Private smelters were reported to have withdrawn support.

• SnTin
• NiNickel

China-US Kuala Lumpur trade arrangement extended to 10 Jan 2027

10 Jan 2027. MOFCOM said on 28 Sep 2026 that China and the US agreed to extend the Kuala Lumpur joint arrangement, which suspends some tariff and non-tariff measures, to 10 Jan 2027. MOFCOM had not yet published a notice amending the end date in Announcement No. 70 of 2025.

Originally due 10 Nov 2026 under Announcement No. 70 of 2025. Announced by US Treasury Secretary Bessent on 24 Sep 2026 and by MOFCOM on 28 Sep 2026. The MOFCOM statement does not name the export controls; no amending announcement found as of 11 Oct 2026.

• HoHolmium
• ErErbium
• TmThulium
• EuEuropium
• YbYtterbium
• LiLithium
• CGraphite
• CeCerium
• LaLanthanum
• NdNeodymium
• PrPraseodymium
• SmSamarium
• GdGadolinium
• TbTerbium
• DyDysprosium
• LuLutetium
• YYttrium
• ScScandium

Wind-down for Russian refined copper (CN 7403 19) ends

25 Jan 2027. Under Article 3i(3bf) of Regulation (EU) No 833/2014, contracts concluded before 24 April 2026 for Russian unwrought refined copper under CN 7403 19 may be executed until 25 January 2027.

• CuCopper

EU CBAM certificate sales begin on central platform

1 Feb 2027. Under Article 20(1) of Regulation (EU) 2023/956 as amended by Regulation (EU) 2025/2083, Member States start selling CBAM certificates on the common central platform from 1 February 2027, including for emissions embedded in 2026 imports.

• AlAluminum
• FeMnFerro manganese
• FeCrFerro chrome
• PO₄Phosphate
• KClPotash

Moroccan phosphate fertilizer duty relief reaches 8-month limit

End Feb 2027 (expected). The duty relief for Moroccan phosphate fertilizers under Proclamation 11038 lasts until the earlier of 8 months after 29 Jun 2026 or the end of the declared emergency, so it lapses around the end of Feb 2027 unless ended earlier.

End date is computed (29 Jun 2026 + 8 months) and may come sooner if the emergency is terminated.

• PO₄Phosphate

EU anti-dumping duties on Chinese graphite electrode systems due to lapse

8 Apr 2027. Definitive anti-dumping duties on graphite electrode systems from China imposed by Implementing Regulation (EU) 2022/558 (in force 8 April 2022, extended to certain artificial graphite blocks in 2025) lapse after five years unless an expiry review is initiated.

A notice of impending expiry was reported in July 2026; a timely expiry review request would keep duties in force during the review.

• CGraphite

Morocco's two-year export licensing of copper and aluminium ingots is due to lapse

Around 23 Apr 2027 (expected). The export licence requirement that Order 693-25 placed on certain copper and aluminium ingots runs for two years from its publication on 24 April 2025, unless it is renewed.

Global Trade Alert gives the revocation date as 23 Apr 2027; the order text itself was not checked.

• CuCopper
• AlAluminum

Deadline for review of EU strategic and critical raw materials lists

By 24 May 2027 (expected). Articles 3(3) and 4(3) of the Critical Raw Materials Act require the Commission to review and, if necessary, update the strategic and critical raw materials lists by 24 May 2027 and at least every three years thereafter. Materials shown are a representative subset.

• AlAluminum
• BiBismuth
• BBoron
• CoCobalt
• CuCopper
• GaGallium
• GeGermanium
• CGraphite
• LiLithium
• MgMagnesium
• MnManganese
• NiNickel
• PtPlatinum
• SiSilicon
• WTungsten

Canada's surtax relief for eligible US aluminium imports is due to end

30 Jun 2027. SOR/2026-154 extends remission of Canada's counter-tariff surtax on US aluminium used in manufacturing, processing, food and beverage packaging or farming, and for health and safety uses, to goods imported before 1 July 2027.

Originally due to end on 30 Jun 2026; extended by SOR/2026-154, published 1 Jul 2026. It could be extended again.

• AlAluminum

EU duties on Russian/Belarusian fertilisers step up (year 3)

1 Jul 2027. From 1 July 2027 to 30 June 2028, the fixed per-tonne duty (on top of 6.5%) on Russian and Belarusian fertilisers under CN 3102 and covered 3105 subheadings rises again under Regulation (EU) 2025/1227; the volume trigger falls to 0.9 Mt.

• PO₄Phosphate
• KClPotash

First CBAM annual declaration and certificate surrender deadline

30 Sept 2027. Authorised CBAM declarants must submit the first annual CBAM declaration and surrender certificates for goods imported in 2026 by 30 September 2027, under Articles 6(1) and 22(1) as amended by Regulation (EU) 2025/2083.

Replaces the original 31 May 2027 deadline in Regulation (EU) 2023/956.

• AlAluminum
• FeMnFerro manganese
• FeCrFerro chrome
• PO₄Phosphate
• KClPotash

China's 2026-2027 tungsten, antimony and silver export lists reach end of period

31 Dec 2027. MOFCOM's state-trading export lists for tungsten, antimony and silver cover 2026-2027, so they end with 2027. A new list for the next period would need to be issued for exports from 2028.

The end date comes from the 2026-2027 period named in the notice; the notice gives no explicit expiry date.

• WTungsten
• SbAntimony
• AgSilver

Russia's temporary export bans under Decree 313 extended to end-2027

31 Dec 2027. Government Decree No. 1516 of 2 October 2025 extends temporary export bans and licensing under Decrees 311, 312 and 313 from 31 December 2025 to 31 December 2027, covering the restriction on enriched uranium exports to the US.

Replaces the earlier 31 December 2025 expiry.

• UUranium
• GaGallium
• TeTellurium
• LiLithium
• NbNiobium

DOE waivers for Russian uranium imports terminate

1 Jan 2028. Waivers the Secretary of Energy may grant under the Prohibiting Russian Uranium Imports Act terminate no later than 1 Jan 2028; waivers cover only calendar years 2024 to 2027 within annual quantity limits. After that date the import ban applies without waiver.

• UUranium

Temporary reduced Section 232 rates on listed aluminum derivatives end

1 Jan 2028. Under Proclamations 11021 and 11032, temporary reduced Section 232 rates for listed aluminum and steel derivative articles apply until 31 Dec 2027; from 1 Jan 2028 those products move to the standard derivative rates in clause (3) of Proclamation 11021.

• AlAluminum

Morocco's 24-month export restriction on copper-alloy ingots is due to lapse

May 2028 (expected). The quantitative export restriction on copper-alloy ingots (mainly brass) published in Bulletin officiel 7506 in May 2026 runs for 24 months, until May 2028, unless it is renewed.

• CuCopper
• ZnZinc

First UK CBAM return and payment due

31 May 2028. Returns and payments for the first UK CBAM accounting period (1 January to 31 December 2027) are due on 31 May 2028, five months after the period ends, according to the government's CBAM policy summary.

• AlAluminum
• FeMnFerro manganese
• FeCrFerro chrome
• PO₄Phosphate
• KClPotash

EU duties on Russian/Belarusian fertilisers reach final level

1 Jul 2028. From 1 July 2028, Regulation (EU) 2025/1227 applies its final-stage duties on Russian and Belarusian nitrogenous (CN 3102) and covered mixed (ex 3105) fertilisers: 6.5% plus the highest of its fixed per-tonne amounts.

• PO₄Phosphate
• KClPotash

Next statutory update of US critical minerals list due

By Nov 2028 (expected). The Energy Act of 2020 requires USGS to update the List of Critical Minerals at least every 3 years; counting from the final 2025 list (7 Nov 2025) gives a deadline around Nov 2028. Materials shown are a representative sample only.

Approximate: the statute sets a maximum interval, not a date. The notice also says the list will be updated 'not less than biannually', so an earlier revision is possible.

• CuCopper
• LiLithium
• CGraphite
• UUranium
• AgSilver

EU ferro-alloy safeguard measure scheduled to expire

17 Nov 2028. The definitive safeguard on ferro-silicon, ferro-manganese, ferro-silico-manganese and ferro-silico-magnesium imports is set to expire on 17 November 2028, the end of its three-year duration; the final quarterly quota period runs 18 Aug to 17 Nov 2028.

• FeSiFerro silicon
• FeMnFerro manganese
• SiMnSilico manganese

Gabon's ban on raw manganese ore exports due to take effect

1 Jan 2029. Gabon, the second-largest manganese ore producer, announced in May 2025 that exports of raw manganese will be banned from 1 January 2029 so that ore is processed locally. In Feb 2026 the mining minister called the date non-negotiable.

No published decree found as of 11 Oct 2026. Later than the calendar's usual window (to end-2028); included because the tracker cites it.

• MnManganese
• FeMnFerro manganese
• SiMnSilico manganese