Copper
The leading metal for electrical wiring, motors and power networks, valued for its high conductivity. Chile is the largest miner and China refines about half of the world's copper. The United States added copper to its critical minerals list in 2025.
Supply risk
Reviewed 3 Oct 2026 · Methodology
Elevated
Grasberg mud rush takes the world's second-largest copper mine offline
Operational disruption, policy and export controls (all elevated) decide the level: Freeport declared force majeure at Grasberg after a mud rush on 8 September 2025 and expects pre-incident output only from 2027, while US Section 232 tariffs and the US ban on Russian copper reshape trade. The ICSG still forecast a small refined surplus for 2026, which keeps the level below high.
Since 8 Sept 2025 · Sources: Mining Technology, Petromindo
Get alerts for this materialRisk drivers
- Supply concentrationModerate
- China produced about 14 million t of the world's 29 million t of refined copper in 2025 (about 48%). Mining is more spread out: Chile led with about 23% of world mine output, followed by the DRC and Peru.Source: U.S. Geological Survey
- Export controlsElevated
- Indonesia has banned copper concentrate exports since 1 Jan 2025 to push domestic smelting; Freeport sought a temporary permit after a fire at its Gresik smelter. Indonesia mined about 3% of world copper in 2025. No export controls apply to refined copper from the main producers.Sources: Indonesia Business Post, Engineering News (Reuters), U.S. Geological Survey
- Policy & tariffsElevated
- A 50% US Section 232 tariff has applied to semi-finished copper products since 1 Aug 2025; a phased tariff on refined copper (15% from 2027, 30% from 2028) awaits a presidential decision. The US has banned imports of Russian copper produced from 13 Apr 2024; Russia was the fifth-largest miner in 2025.Sources: Federal Register, Federal Register, U.S. Department of the Treasury
- Operational disruptionElevated
- A mud rush on 8 Sept 2025 halted Grasberg, the world's second-largest copper mine; Freeport expects a gradual ramp-up from 2026 and pre-incident output from 2027. In April 2026 the ICSG said output at Grasberg and Kamoa remained constrained after 2025 disruptions.Sources: Mining Technology, Petromindo
- Demand shockModerate
- In April 2026 the ICSG forecast refined copper usage growth of 1.6% in 2026 and 2% in 2027 and a refined surplus in both years. US refined imports nearly doubled in 2025 as buyers moved ahead of possible tariffs.Sources: Petromindo, U.S. Geological Survey
Status history2 entries
Elevatedcurrent
Grasberg mud rush takes the world's second-largest copper mine offline
Operational disruption, policy and export controls (all elevated) decide the level: Freeport declared force majeure at Grasberg after a mud rush on 8 September 2025 and expects pre-incident output only from 2027, while US Section 232 tariffs and the US ban on Russian copper reshape trade. The ICSG still forecast a small refined surplus for 2026, which keeps the level below high.
Sources: Mining Technology, Petromindo
Moderate
Baseline
China produced about 11 million t of the world's 26 million t of refined copper in 2022 (about 42%), so supply concentration (moderate) set the level. Mine supply was spread across Chile, Peru, the DRC and others, with no major trade restrictions in force.
Source: U.S. Geological Survey
A supply-availability rating, not a price forecast or investment view. Export-control information is factual and is not legal advice.
Trade flows
2024 · HS 740311
Refined copper cathodes
Recorded world imports: 9.3 Mt · $86.4B
Top exporters
- DR Congo22%2 Mt · $19.1B
- Chile22%2 Mt · $18.9B
- Japan8%712,155 t · $6.6B
- Kazakhstan5%447,024 t · $4.11B
- Australia4%354,254 t · $3.32B
- Russia4%332,380 t · $3.05B
- Peru3%296,649 t · $2.76B
- Poland3%278,704 t · $2.55B
- China3%249,675 t · $2.41B
- Bulgaria2%200,042 t · $1.86B
Top importers
- China41%3.8 Mt · $35.2B
- United States10%907,796 t · $8.54B
- Italy6%526,719 t · $4.9B
- Taiwan (Other Asia, nes)6%514,333 t · $4.82B
- Germany4%415,126 t · $3.66B
- Türkiye4%359,679 t · $3.35B
- Thailand4%328,321 t · $3.11B
- India3%291,902 t · $2.67B
- Brazil3%281,821 t · $2.59B
- South Korea3%257,360 t · $2.36B
Largest routes
- DR Congo→China1.4 Mt · $13.7B
- Chile→United States650,616 t · $6.13B
- Chile→China573,884 t · $5.37B
- Kazakhstan→China296,154 t · $2.7B
- Japan→China238,294 t · $2.23B
Source: UN Comtrade, imports reported by 95 countries for 2024. Exporters are ranked by what importing countries recorded (mirror data), so countries that do not report their own exports are still counted. Values are in US dollars including freight and insurance. Weights are product weight. Recent years can be incomplete, and unrecorded trade is not included.
Overview
Copper is a reddish metal that conducts heat and electricity very well and is easily drawn into wire. Most copper goes into electrical equipment such as wiring and motors. It is also used in construction, for example in roofing and plumbing, and in industrial machinery such as heat exchangers.1
Demand is broad rather than niche, but copper has moved up the policy agenda because electrification needs a lot of it and new is slow to arrive. In 2025 the United States added copper to its List of Critical Minerals. The EU lists copper as both a critical and a .234
Where it comes from
World mine production was an estimated 23 million t of copper content in 2025. Chile was the largest producer, followed by the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Peru.3 Some mines produce on site by solvent extraction– (SX-EW) instead of shipping to . SX-EW accounted for about 17% of output in 2024.5
- Chile5,300,000 t · 23%
- Congo (Kinshasa)3,200,000 t · 14%
- Peru2,700,000 t · 12%
- China1,800,000 t · 8%
- Russia1,300,000 t · 6%
- United States1,000,000 t · 4%
- Zambia940,000 t · 4%
- Other countries6,773,000 t · 29%
World total shown is the sum of USGS country estimates; USGS rounds it to 23 million t. Source: Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Copper
Refining is more concentrated than mining. China produced about 14 million t of the estimated 29 million t of refined copper in 2025, far more than it mined.3 The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) puts 2024 refined production at 27.5 million t, of which about 17% was secondary copper refined from .5
- China14,000,000 t · 48%
- Congo (Kinshasa)2,800,000 t · 10%
- Chile1,700,000 t · 6%
- Japan1,400,000 t · 5%
- Russia950,000 t · 3%
- United States850,000 t · 3%
- Other countries7,270,000 t · 25%
Includes primary and secondary refined copper. Country figures sum to 28,970,000 t; USGS rounds the world total to 29 million t. Source: Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Copper
Identified world were estimated at 2.1 billion t in 2015, including about 600 million t already mined, and undiscovered resources at a further 3.5 billion t.3
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What it is used for
In the United States, building construction is the largest market for copper and copper products, followed by electrical and electronic products and transportation equipment. Brass and wire-rod mills account for about 80% of the copper recovered from scrap.3
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Grades and forms
Copper is traded at every stage: as concentrate from the mine, as from the smelter, as refined cathode, and as semi-finished products and scrap. Copper and copper alloy products reach end users through brass mills, rod mills and foundries.3
Copper concentrate
Flotation product of sulfide ore, typically shipped to smelters; the main form of mined copper in trade.
Blister and anode copper
Impure smelter output that is cast into anodes for electrolytic refining.
Copper cathode
Grade A ≥ 99.99% Cu (LME)
Refined metal from electrolytic refining or solvent extraction–electrowinning (SX-EW), the main traded refined form.
Wire rod
Continuously cast rod drawn into building wire, power cable and magnet wire.
Semi-finished products
Sheet, strip, tube, bar and foil made by rolling and extrusion mills, including brass and bronze alloys.
Copper scrap
New scrap from manufacturing and old scrap from end-of-life products, remelted directly or refined.
Trade and policy
The United States mined about 1.0 million t of copper in 2025, about 70% of it in Arizona. Its for refined copper rose to 57%. Refined imports almost doubled to about 1.7 million t, and refined stocks rose to about 450,000 t by year-end. Chile supplied 68% of US refined copper imports in 2021–24.3
US copper trade measures under of the Trade Expansion Act:
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2025 | Proclamation 10962 finds that copper imports threaten US national security.6 |
| 1 Aug 2025 | A 50% tariff takes effect on semi-finished copper products and intensive copper derivative products listed in an annex.6 |
| 1 Aug 2025 | Refined copper is not covered. Commerce is to report by 30 June 2026 so the President can decide on a phased tariff on refined copper of 15% from 1 January 2027 and 30% from 1 January 2028. Commerce is also to implement domestic sales requirements for copper input materials and high-quality scrap.6 |
| 7 Nov 2025 | Copper is added to the US List of Critical Minerals.2 |
| 6 Apr 2026 | Section 232 duties on copper articles apply to the full customs value, regardless of metal content. The rate is 50% for most copper articles and 10% for derivative articles whose copper was entirely smelted and cast in the United States.7 |
| 1 Jun 2026 | A further proclamation adjusts the aluminum, steel and copper tariff regimes.8 |
| 6 Aug 2026 | The Bureau of Industry and Security asks for public comment on adding further copper, aluminum and steel derivative articles to the tariffs.9 |
In the EU, the sets 2030 benchmarks for strategic raw materials such as copper: 10% of EU consumption from EU extraction, 40% from EU processing and 25% from , and no more than 65% from any single third country.10
This section is factual background, not legal or trade-compliance advice.
Recycling and substitution
In the United States, old scrap supplied about 160,000 t of copper in 2025, and about 760,000 t was recovered from new manufacturing scrap. Scrap contributed about 30% of US copper supply.3
Aluminum can replace copper in power cable, electrical equipment, automobile radiators and cooling tubes. Optical fiber can replace it in telecommunications, plastics in plumbing and drain pipe, and titanium and steel in heat exchangers.3
Sources
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Copper: element information, properties and uses. Royal Society of Chemistry, accessed 2026-10-03. ↩
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Final 2025 List of Critical Minerals. Federal Register, accessed 2026-10-03. ↩ ↩2
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Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Copper. U.S. Geological Survey, accessed 2026-10-03. ↩ ↩2 ↩3 ↩4 ↩5 ↩6 ↩7 ↩8 ↩9
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EU critical raw materials. European Commission, Joint Research Centre (RMIS), accessed 2026-10-03. ↩
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The World Copper Factbook 2025. International Copper Study Group, accessed 2026-10-03. ↩ ↩2
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Adjusting Imports of Copper Into the United States (Proclamation 10962). Federal Register, accessed 2026-10-03. ↩ ↩2 ↩3
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Strengthening Actions Taken To Adjust Imports of Aluminum, Steel, and Copper Into the United States. Federal Register, accessed 2026-10-03. ↩
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Further Adjusting the Tariff Regimes for Imports of Aluminum, Steel, and Copper Into the United States. Federal Register, accessed 2026-10-03. ↩
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Request for Public Comments on the Proposed Implementation of Duties on Additional Aluminum, Steel, and Copper Derivative Articles. Federal Register, accessed 2026-10-03. ↩
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Regulation (EU) 2024/1252 (Critical Raw Materials Act). EUR-Lex, accessed 2026-10-03. ↩