Nickel
A corrosion-resistant metal used mainly in stainless steel and alloys, and increasingly in lithium-ion battery cathodes. Indonesia now mines about two-thirds of the world's nickel after banning exports of unprocessed ore in 2020.
Supply risk
Reviewed 11 Oct 2026 · Methodology
Elevated
Indonesia dominates mine supply and tightens ore quotas and export rules
Supply concentration (high) and policy (high) decide the level: Indonesia mines about two-thirds of world nickel and bans ore exports to force domestic processing, and the US bans imports of new Russian nickel. Refined nickel stays readily available, so supply to major markets is constrained but not impaired.
Since 1 Jan 2023 · Sources: U.S. Geological Survey, International Energy Agency, ING via Hellenic Shipping News
Get alerts for this materialRisk drivers
- Supply concentrationHigh
- Indonesia mined an estimated 2.6 million t of the world's 3.9 million t in 2025 (about 67%), followed by the Philippines (7%) and Russia (5%). The IEA found Indonesia supplied roughly 90% of refined nickel supply growth in 2020–24.Sources: U.S. Geological Survey, Mercom India
- Export controlsElevated
- Indonesia has banned nickel ore exports since 1 Jan 2020. Since 1 Jun 2026 ferronickel exports are in a transition to state exporter PT Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia, the only permitted exporter from 1 Jan 2027; whether nickel pig iron is covered is disputed. A planned export levy on processed nickel was postponed in May 2026.Sources: International Energy Agency, SMM, SMM, Ministry of Trade of Indonesia
- Policy & tariffsHigh
- Indonesia's ore export ban is a domestic-processing mandate; it cut its 2026 ore quota to about 260 million t against smelter needs of about 310 million t, and raised royalties in Apr 2025. Since 13 Apr 2024 the US has banned imports of newly produced Russian nickel, and the LME and CME no longer accept it.Sources: Mysteel, BCA Sekuritas, U.S. Department of the Treasury
- Operational disruptionLow
- No major unplanned outage was identified in the 12 months to October 2026. Lower 2025 output in Australia (down about 54%) reflected mines placed on care and maintenance for market reasons rather than disruption.Source: U.S. Geological Survey
- Demand shockLow
- In Apr 2026 the INSG forecast a small 2026 deficit after a large 2025 surplus, mainly because Indonesian quota cuts lower output; battery demand has grown more slowly than expected. ING noted in Jul 2026 that rising exchange stocks show refined nickel remains readily available.Sources: Petromindo, ING via Hellenic Shipping News
A supply-availability rating, not a price forecast or investment view. Export-control information is factual and is not legal advice.
Trade flows
2024 · HS 750210
Unwrought nickel, not alloyed
Recorded world imports: 642,308 t · $10.9B
Top exporters
- Canada13%81,609 t · $1.44B
- Norway12%75,836 t · $1.32B
- Australia12%75,375 t · $1.3B
- Russia11%68,757 t · $1.16B
- Indonesia8%53,519 t · $918M
- China8%51,631 t · $989M
- Netherlands6%39,928 t · $671M
- South Africa6%35,398 t · $611M
- Germany4%27,604 t · $93.8M
- Finland4%26,256 t · $446M
Top importers
- China15%97,261 t · $1.67B
- United States13%81,002 t · $1.42B
- Taiwan (Other Asia, nes)8%51,274 t · $876M
- Japan8%49,139 t · $860M
- Germany8%49,069 t · $857M
- Belgium6%38,431 t · $246M
- India6%36,920 t · $598M
- France5%33,291 t · $601M
- Italy5%32,166 t · $547M
- Netherlands4%27,905 t · $474M
Largest routes
- Russia→China46,290 t · $788M
- Canada→United States42,119 t · $758M
- China→Taiwan (Other Asia, nes)32,870 t · $555M
- Australia→Japan28,502 t · $493M
- Germany→Belgium23,925 t · $32.6M
Source: UN Comtrade, imports reported by 88 countries for 2024. Exporters are ranked by what importing countries recorded (mirror data), so countries that do not report their own exports are still counted. Values are in US dollars including freight and insurance. Weights are product weight. Recent years can be incomplete, and unrecorded trade is not included.
Overview
Nickel is a silvery metal that resists even at high temperatures. Its main use is in , above all , and it is also used for plating, in rechargeable batteries and as a .1
Battery demand has made nickel strategically important, but the bigger change has been on the supply side: Indonesia's turned the country into the dominant producer of both mined and processed nickel.23 Nickel is on the 2025 US List of , and nickel is an EU .45
Where it comes from
Nickel are estimated at more than 350 million t. About 54% is in , the weathered tropical deposits mined in Indonesia, the Philippines and New Caledonia. Another 35% is in magmatic sulfide deposits such as those in Canada and Russia. A further 4.5 billion t or so is estimated to sit in seabed nodules and crusts, which are not mined commercially.2
World rose by 5% to an estimated 3.9 million t in 2025. Indonesia's output grew by about 13% as new operations ramped up. Australian production fell by about 54% as several companies put mines on care and maintenance, and output in the Philippines fell by about 24%.2
- Indonesia2,600,000 t · 67%
- Philippines270,000 t · 7%
- Russia200,000 t · 5%
- Canada140,000 t · 4%
- New Caledonia140,000 t · 4%
- China120,000 t · 3%
- Other countries415,000 t · 11%
Country figures sum to 3,885,000 t; USGS rounds the world total to 3.9 million t. Source: Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Nickel
The International Nickel Study Group (INSG) puts world primary ( and ) nickel production at about 3.88 million t in 2025.6 The INSG says the primary nickel market has been in surplus every year since 2022.2
Indonesia also holds the largest , followed by Australia and Brazil.2
- Indonesia62,000,000 t · 44%
- Australia25,000,000 t · 18%
- Brazil16,000,000 t · 11%
- Russia8,300,000 t · 6%
- New Caledonia7,100,000 t · 5%
- Philippines4,800,000 t · 3%
- China4,400,000 t · 3%
- Other countries11,640,000 t · 8%
USGS gives the world total as more than 140 million t and "other countries" as more than 9.1 million t. Source: Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Nickel
What it is used for
Stainless and alloy steels and nickel-containing alloys typically account for more than 85% of US nickel consumption. Most of the rest goes into electroplating, catalysts and chemicals.2 Nickel alloys are used where heat and corrosion resistance matter, for example in turbine blades, desalination plants and heating elements. Nickel is also used in nickel-metal hydride batteries and in the of many batteries.1
Grades and forms
Nickel is sold in two broad families. refined metal goes into alloys, plating and battery chemicals. Lower-grade products such as ferronickel and nickel pig iron go mainly into stainless steel. In between are intermediates such as nickel matte and (MHP). Indonesia sets separate royalty rates for ore, matte, ferronickel and nickel pig iron.72
Refined nickel (Class 1)
≥ 99.8% Ni
High-purity cathode, briquettes, pellets and powder used in alloys, plating and battery chemicals.
Ferronickel
Iron-nickel alloy produced from laterite ore and used mainly to make stainless steel.
Nickel pig iron (NPI)
Lower-grade iron-nickel product made from laterite ore, mostly in Indonesia and China, for stainless steel.
Nickel matte
Smelter intermediate containing nickel sulfide that is refined further into metal or sulfate.
Mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP)
Nickel-cobalt intermediate from high-pressure acid leach (HPAL) plants, used as feed for battery chemicals.
Nickel sulfate
Battery-grade chemical used to make nickel-rich NCM and NCA cathodes for lithium-ion batteries.
Trade and policy
The United States has had no primary nickel refinery since 1985. Its one producing mine, the Eagle Mine in Michigan, produced about 10,000 t of nickel in in 2025, which was exported for . Canada supplied 44% of US primary nickel imports in 2021–24.2
Indonesia's policy has reshaped the global market:
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| Jan 2014 | Indonesia bans exports of unprocessed nickel ore for the first time.3 |
| Jan 2017 | Exports of ore grading below 1.7% nickel are allowed again, until the end of 2019.3 |
| Sep 2019 | Indonesia brings forward a full ore export ban from 2022 to January 2020.8 |
| 1 Jan 2020 | The full ban on nickel ore exports takes effect.3 |
| 30 Nov 2022 | A WTO panel finds the export ban and the domestic processing requirement inconsistent with GATT Article XI:1, in a dispute brought by the EU.9 |
| 8 Dec 2022 | Indonesia appeals the panel report. With the WTO Appellate Body not functioning, the appeal remains pending.9 |
| 26 Apr 2025 | Higher royalties take effect: nickel ore rises from 10% to a sliding 14–19%, and rates for matte, ferronickel and nickel pig iron also rise.7 |
| Oct 2025 | Mining work plans (RKAB) return from three-year to annual approval from 2026.10 |
| Feb 2026 | The 2026 nickel ore quota is set at about 260–270 million t of ore, roughly one-third lower than the 379 million t approved for 2025.11 |
In the Philippines, the province of Palawan announced a 50-year ban on new mining permits in 2025. Existing operations are not affected.2
This section is factual background, not legal or trade-compliance advice.
Recycling and substitution
Most secondary nickel comes from stainless-steel and is used again to make stainless steel and alloys. In 2025, nickel recovered from scrap supplied about 60% of US apparent consumption.2
In construction, low-nickel, duplex and ultrahigh-chromium stainless steels can replace standard austenitic grades. Nickel-free specialty steels and titanium alloys can replace nickel alloys in some power, petrochemical and corrosive-environment uses.2
Sources
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Nickel: element information, properties and uses. Royal Society of Chemistry, accessed 2026-10-03. ↩ ↩2
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Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Nickel. U.S. Geological Survey, accessed 2026-10-03. ↩ ↩2 ↩3 ↩4 ↩5 ↩6 ↩7 ↩8 ↩9 ↩10 ↩11
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Prohibition of the export of nickel ore. International Energy Agency, accessed 2026-10-03. ↩ ↩2 ↩3 ↩4
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Final 2025 List of Critical Minerals. Federal Register, accessed 2026-10-03. ↩
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EU critical raw materials. European Commission, Joint Research Centre (RMIS), accessed 2026-10-03. ↩
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Global nickel market seen shifting to deficit in 2026, INSG says. Petromindo, accessed 2026-10-03. ↩
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Indonesia finalized new royalty tariffs for Minerba under PP No. 18/2025 and 19/2025. BCA Sekuritas, accessed 2026-10-03. ↩ ↩2
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World's biggest nickel ore maker bans exports from January 2020. Al Jazeera, accessed 2026-10-03. ↩
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DS592: Indonesia — Measures Relating to Raw Materials. World Trade Organization, accessed 2026-10-03. ↩ ↩2
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Indonesia's 2026 RKAB new regulations released. SMM, accessed 2026-10-03. ↩
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Indonesia to cut nickel mining quota in 2026. Argus Media, accessed 2026-10-03. ↩