Launch edition: supply risk across 77 critical materials

The risk tracker now rates all 77 materials on the US and EU critical lists, plus key ferro alloys. Two are rated Critical, 35 High, 24 Elevated, 13 Moderate and 3 Low. This first briefing summarises where things stand; from next week, each briefing covers only what changed.

Where risk is highest

Terbium and yttrium are rated Critical. Both have been under Chinese export licensing since 4 April 2025, and shipments to the US and Japan remain a small fraction of earlier levels.

Most of the 35 materials rated High are there because one country dominates supply. Rare earths, gallium, germanium and tungsten are examples. In several cases, export licensing in that country adds to the risk.

Recent changes

• Aluminum: Elevated → High (4 Mar 2026). Gulf smelters were curtailed by the Iran war while Russian metal stays barred from the US and EU.
• Helium: Moderate → High (2 Mar 2026). The Ras Laffan shutdown in Qatar removed about a third of world supply.
• Phosphate: Moderate → Elevated (11 Dec 2025). China suspended phosphate fertilizer exports, and the Hormuz closure cut Gulf supply.
• Ferro manganese: Moderate → Elevated (18 Nov 2025). EU safeguard quotas on ferroalloy imports took effect.
• Gallium, germanium and antimony: Critical → High (9 Nov 2025). China suspended its ban on exports to the US until 27 Nov 2026; licensing stays in place.
• Cobalt: Critical → High (16 Oct 2025). The DRC replaced its export ban with quotas.

Dates to watch

China's suspension of its October 2025 rare-earth and battery-material controls runs to 10 November 2026, and the suspension of its US export ban on gallium, germanium and antimony runs to 27 November 2026. Ratings for the affected materials will be reviewed as those dates approach.

Every rating, with its five drivers and sources, is on the risk tracker.