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Potash

US critical

Potash is the group of mined potassium salts, mainly potassium chloride, used above all as fertilizer. Canada, Russia, Belarus and China produce most of it, and sanctions on Belarus have reshaped trade since 2021.

Supply risk

Reviewed 3 Oct 2026 · Methodology

Moderate

Diverse supply; EU ban on Belarusian potash in force since 2021

Policy (elevated) sets the level: the EU has banned imports of Belarusian potash since 2021, and Belarus is the fourth-largest producer. Mine supply is spread across Canada, Russia, China and Belarus, there are no export controls, and the US removed Belaruskali from its sanctions list in March 2026, so the overall level is one below the policy driver.

Since 1 Jan 2023 · Sources: EUR-Lex, U.S. Department of the Treasury, Office of Foreign Assets Control, U.S. Geological Survey

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Risk drivers

Supply concentrationLow
World mine output was about 49 million t K₂O in 2025. Canada produced about 15 million t (about 31%), Russia 10 million t (about 21%), China 6.3 million t and Belarus 6.0 million t. Canada supplied 79% of US imports in 2021–24.Source: U.S. Geological Survey
Export controlsLow
No potash export controls by major producers were identified. Russia's fertilizer export quotas for 1 Jun–30 Nov 2026 cover nitrogen and complex fertilizers and ammonium nitrate, not potassium chloride.Source: Interfax
Policy & tariffsElevated
The EU has prohibited imports of listed Belarusian potash since 24 Jun 2021, widened in Mar 2022, and Belaruskali and the Belarusian Potash Company remain on its asset-freeze list (consolidated 27 Feb 2026). The US removed both from its SDN list on 26 Mar 2026. Potash fertilizers enter the US duty-free.Sources: EUR-Lex, EUR-Lex, U.S. Department of the Treasury, Office of Foreign Assets Control
Operational disruptionLow
No significant outages at major potash mines were identified in the 12 months to October 2026. USGS reports US production and sales rose in 2025.
Demand shockLow
World fertilizer use of potash was about 41.6 million t K₂O in 2025, against capacity of 66.1 million t, rising to a projected 77.4 million t by 2029. Consumption is projected at 45.3 million t in 2029, led by Asia and South America.Source: U.S. Geological Survey

A supply-availability rating, not a price forecast or investment view. Export-control information is factual and is not legal advice.

Trade flows

2024 · HS 310420

Potassium chloride (muriate of potash)

Recorded world imports: 61.1 Mt · $18.9B

Top exporters

  1. Canada44%27.1 Mt · $7.77B
  2. Russia25%15.2 Mt · $4.51B
  3. Belarus6%3.6 Mt · $1.06B
  4. Israel5%2.9 Mt · $899M
  5. Laos4%2.7 Mt · $812M
  6. Germany4%2.2 Mt · $778M
  7. Jordan3%2.1 Mt · $681M
  8. Uzbekistan3%2 Mt · $600M
  9. Turkmenistan1%813,537 t · $228M
  10. Spain<1%516,837 t · $175M

Top importers

  1. Brazil23%14.1 Mt · $4.24B
  2. United States23%14 Mt · $3.72B
  3. China21%12.8 Mt · $3.77B
  4. India6%3.8 Mt · $1.12B
  5. Indonesia6%3.4 Mt · $1.01B
  6. Malaysia3%1.6 Mt · $486M
  7. Belgium2%1.1 Mt · $366M
  8. Poland2%958,781 t · $336M
  9. Thailand1%902,787 t · $336M
  10. South Korea1%769,665 t · $247M

Largest routes

  1. Canada→United States12.1 Mt · $3.07B
  2. Russia→Brazil5.4 Mt · $1.6B
  3. Canada→Brazil4.9 Mt · $1.5B
  4. Russia→China4.2 Mt · $1.26B
  5. Belarus→China2.9 Mt · $843M

Source: UN Comtrade, imports reported by 130 countries for 2024. Exporters are ranked by what importing countries recorded (mirror data), so countries that do not report their own exports are still counted. Values are in US dollars including freight and insurance. Weights are product weight. Recent years can be incomplete, and unrecorded trade is not included.

Overview

Potash is a general name for mined and manufactured salts that contain potassium in water-soluble form. In agriculture it means the potassium fertilizers potassium , potassium and potassium magnesium sulfate.1 Potassium is an essential plant nutrient, and there is no for it in crops or in human and animal diets.1

The United States added potash to its list of in November 2025.1 The EU assessed potash in 2023 and found it economically important, but its supply-risk score of 0.7 was below the threshold of 1.0, so it is not on the EU list.2

Where it comes from

Most potash is mined from deep evaporite deposits, either by conventional underground mining or by solution mining, in which is pumped through the and the salts are recovered by evaporation. Ore is then upgraded by flotation, dissolution and recrystallization, or heavy-media separation.1

World production was an estimated 49 million t of K₂O in 2025. Canada produced about 15 million t, Russia about 10 million t, and China and Belarus about 6 million t each.1

Potash mine production by country2025 (est.) · world 49,000,000 t
  • Canada31%
  • Russia20%
  • China13%
  • Belarus12%
  • Germany6%
  • Laos5%
  • Israel4%
  • Jordan4%
  • Other countries4%

K₂O equivalent. Country figures sum to 48.7 million t; USGS rounds the world total to 49 million t. Source: Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Potash

are also concentrated. estimates them at more than 5.9 billion t of K₂O, with Russia (2.0 billion t), Canada (1.1 billion t), Laos (1.0 billion t) and Belarus (0.75 billion t) holding the most. Israel and Jordan recover potash from the Dead Sea, which contains nearly 2 billion t of potassium chloride. World total about 250 billion t.1

Capacity is expanding. World capacity was 66.1 million t of K₂O in 2025 and is projected to reach 77.4 million t by 2029, mostly from new potassium chloride mines and expansions in Laos and Russia. New mines in Belarus, Brazil, Canada, Ethiopia, Morocco and Spain are planned to start after 2029.1

What it is used for

Fertilizer is by far the largest use. World consumption of potash in fertilizer was an estimated 41.6 million t of K₂O in 2025, up from 40.6 million t in 2024, and is projected to reach 45.3 million t in 2029. Asia and South America are growing fastest.1 In the EU, the Commission attributes 92% of potash use to fertilizers and 8% to chemicals.2

In the United States, about 85% of potash sales go to fertilizers and the rest to chemical and industrial uses. More than 60% of US output is potassium sulfate and potassium magnesium sulfate, which are needed for chloride-sensitive crops.1

Grades and forms

Potassium chloride, sold as muriate of potash, is used in both agriculture and chemicals. Sulfate-based products serve chloride-sensitive crops.1

Muriate of potash (MOP)

≥ 95% KCl

An agriculturally acceptable mix of potassium chloride and sodium chloride; the main potash fertilizer.

Sulfate of potash (SOP)

Potassium sulfate, used for crops that are sensitive to chloride.

Sulfate of potash magnesia (SOPM, langbeinite)

Potassium magnesium sulfate, a fertilizer that also supplies magnesium and sulfur.

Trade and policy

The United States relied on imports for 92% of its potash consumption in 2025. In 2021–24, Canada supplied 79% of US imports, Russia 12% and Israel 3%. US imports of potash fertilizers enter duty free.1 Domestic output comes from New Mexico and Utah, and in January 2025 a planned mine in Osceola County, Michigan, received a conditional federal loan commitment.1

Belarus, a top-four producer, has been the main focus of :

DateEvent
24 Jun 2021The EU prohibits imports of listed potassium chloride ("potash") products from Belarus, with an exception for contracts concluded before 25 June 2021.3
2 Mar 2022The EU widens its restrictions on trade with Belarus, including potash products.4
15 Dec 2025The US Treasury issues General License 13, authorizing transactions with Belaruskali, the Belarusian Potash Company and Agrorozkvit.5
26 Mar 2026The US removes Belaruskali, the Belarusian Potash Company and Agrorozkvit from its Specially Designated Nationals list, where they had been listed under Executive Order 14038, and archives General License 13.6

The EU measures remain in force. As consolidated on 27 February 2026, EU law prohibits importing, purchasing or transferring listed potash products from Belarus, whether or not they originate there, and bans related financing, insurance and brokering. Belaruskali and the Belarusian Potash Company also remain on the EU asset-freeze list.7

This section is factual background, not legal or trade-compliance advice.

Recycling and substitution

Potash is not .1 There is no substitute for potassium as a plant nutrient. Manure and glauconite (greensand) contain little potassium and can only be transported short distances economically; glauconite is used in organic farming.1

Sources

  1. Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Potash. U.S. Geological Survey, accessed 2026-10-03. ↩ ↩2 ↩3 ↩4 ↩5 ↩6 ↩7 ↩8 ↩9 ↩10 ↩11 ↩12 ↩13 ↩14

  2. Study on the Critical Raw Materials for the EU 2023 – Final Report. European Commission, accessed 2026-10-03. ↩ ↩2

  3. Council Regulation (EU) 2021/1030 amending Regulation (EC) No 765/2006 concerning restrictive measures in respect of Belarus. EUR-Lex, accessed 2026-10-03. ↩

  4. Council Regulation (EU) 2022/355 amending Regulation (EC) No 765/2006 concerning restrictive measures in view of the situation in Belarus. EUR-Lex, accessed 2026-10-03. ↩

  5. Belarus General License No. 13: Authorizing Transactions Involving Joint Stock Company Belarusian Potash Company, Agrorozkvit LLC, and Belaruskali OAO. U.S. Treasury, Office of Foreign Assets Control, accessed 2026-10-03. ↩

  6. Belarus Designations Removals; Issuance of Belarus General License; Rescission of Belarus Directive 1. U.S. Treasury, Office of Foreign Assets Control, accessed 2026-10-03. ↩

  7. Council Regulation (EC) No 765/2006, consolidated text of 27 February 2026. EUR-Lex, accessed 2026-10-03. ↩

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